a tournament hand

[Adaon]

So here's a look at a hand I played this evening. The game is $1 no limit holdem. Over 8000 entered and more then half are already gone. Recently to my current table, plenty of chips vs the blinds and I have most of the table covered. No read on the player and no image for myself.

Table 5 - 100/200 - No Limit Hold'em - 22:05:57 ET - 2010/04/23
Seat 1: sydsdad88 (9,469)
Seat 2: jpq49 (6,760)
Seat 3: Adaon (10,512)
Seat 4: kalin22 (1,550), is sitting out
Seat 5: Deathknell95 (6,650)
Seat 6: mikehawkisitchy (17,078)
Seat 7: DooDooBrwn (3,950)
Seat 8: 1OldRiverDog (10,994), is sitting out
Seat 9: raton_oro (10,410)
kalin22 posts the small blind of 100
Deathknell95 posts the big blind of 200
The button is in seat #3
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to Adaon [Td Ad]
mikehawkisitchy raises to 700
DooDooBrwn folds
1OldRiverDog folds
raton_oro folds
sydsdad88 calls 700
jpq49 folds
Adaon calls 700
kalin22 folds
Deathknell95 calls 500
*** FLOP *** [2h 4d 2d]
Deathknell95 bets 5,950, and is all in
mikehawkisitchy has 15 seconds left to act
mikehawkisitchy has requested TIME
mikehawkisitchy folds
sydsdad88 folds
Adaon ...

So 2 suited over cards to the board, a call represents roughly 60% of your stack. What do you do?

[mmsdan]

With no reads on villain, this is a fold imo.
Unless the shove is a stone cold bluff, at best this looks like a flip.

Pokerstove has your equity at 47.4% with villains range at {JJ-55, AJs+, A4s, A2s, AJo+, A4o, A2o} (I ruled out QQ, KK, AA figuring that the villain would re-pop it pre, and ruled out 44 and 22 figuring that the villain would bet for value on the flop)

What did you put him on?

[Adaon]

I think your range is a bit shy and should include some more Broadway such as KQ OJ JT, this is a loose $1 game.

As for my read on him, I didn't have much to base it on, but I gave more weight to a middle pair, hypothetically lets say 88. It's high enough to look good on that flop, yet scared enough to feel there is no value in further betting it at the risk of an over card coming out. Then my worst case would be a pair of Tens or maybe Jacks where the Ace would be my only over card. Given that I have the Ace of this suit I find it unlikely that I would be against another ace, but ironically if I am the number of outs are the same unless it just so happens to be an A4 or A2.

[mmsdan]

I think your range is a bit shy and should include some more Broadway such as KQ OJ JT, this is a loose $1 game.

As for my read on him, I didn't have much to base it on, but I gave more weight to a middle pair, hypothetically lets say 88. It's high enough to look good on that flop, yet scared enough to feel there is no value in further betting it at the risk of an over card coming out. Then my worst case would be a pair of Tens or maybe Jacks where the Ace would be my only over card. Given that I have the Ace of this suit I find it unlikely that I would be against another ace, but ironically if I am the number of outs are the same unless it just so happens to be an A4 or A2.

True, I def. limited the villains range. It's that uber tight, give credit where credit isn't due, to the other players holdings I sometimes experience.

Let's see if there's any other Freaks that would like to comment.....

[Bump]

bump bump bump

[Adaon]

Well since it has been bumped...

My decision was to call. Two things warranted it: 1)if I lost this hand I would still have a reasonable amount of chips vs the blinds. 2)I looked to me like a middle pair.

Adaon calls 5,950
Deathknell95 shows [Qh Qs]
Adaon shows [Td Ad]
*** TURN *** [2h 4d 2d] [Ac]
*** RIVER *** [2h 4d 2d Ac] [Jd]
Deathknell95 shows two pair, Queens and Twos
Adaon shows a flush, Ace high

Now here is the surprising thing: Although I was of course criticized by the guy going to the rail, I was in fact a small favorite to win the hand. (The "rule of 4" will tell you I'm slightly behind, but an actual calculation reveals I'm closer to 52% to win).

[Kat]

Um... Flush draw on a paired board? I might lead with a hand like this but calling is wrong IMO. Calling is nearly always wrong. NLHE tourns are about using fold equity.

As to the math... Since you don't know what your opponent has (and can hardly pokerstove it on the fly), I think the only way to attack the problem in real time is to assume your flush is good if it hits and see if you're getting the 2:1 needed to make a flush with 2 to come. And then decide if you want to gamble on the come.

[Kat]

Also I don't think you can be a 52% fave on that flop. Aren't you a 60/40 dog?

[Adaon]

No where close to that with 12 outs, The Ace wins, and the flush wins, he has none of my outs. The "deck" is also reduced by 2 cards once I know his which is why I'm better then 50% to win. Actually now that I think about it, there is a bit more because hitting one of his queens looses the pot for me, and running tens would help me. But as that is 2 and 1.5 outs respectively there is little change but it would move the hand closer to truly being 50/50.

The only way I could assume the ace wouldn't be good is if I: 1) give him credit for a bigger ace, which would be almost a stone bluff on this flop. (to a lessor extent A2 or A4s would be remotely possible, but unlikely with the size of the raise he called) 2)He flopped 4s full or quad deuces, in which case the all in bet is the stupidest play of all time with 2 players to act behind him.

Before I see his cards, assuming a big hand would mean assuming he played it expecting no value at all from his hand. More likely with a big hand is to slow play it, or lead small and hope for action behind. With that ruled out I'm either looking at 12 outs, or 15 if the ten is live. Either of those and I would be happy to call (more happy with the 15 of course).

[Kat]

No where close to that with 12 outs, The Ace wins, and the flush wins, he has none of my outs. The "deck" is also reduced by 2 cards once I know his which is why I'm better then 50% to win. Actually now that I think about it, there is a bit more because hitting one of his queens looses the pot for me, and running tens would help me. But as that is 2 and 1.5 outs respectively there is little change but it would move the hand closer to truly being 50/50.

The only way I could assume the ace wouldn't be good is if I: 1) give him credit for a bigger ace, which would be almost a stone bluff on this flop. (to a lessor extent A2 or A4s would be remotely possible, but unlikely with the size of the raise he called) 2)He flopped 4s full or quad deuces, in which case the all in bet is the stupidest play of all time with 2 players to act behind him.

Before I see his cards, assuming a big hand would mean assuming he played it expecting no value at all from his hand. More likely with a big hand is to slow play it, or lead small and hope for action behind. With that ruled out I'm either looking at 12 outs, or 15 if the ten is live. Either of those and I would be happy to call (more happy with the 15 of course).

No sir.

First, 12 outs twice is a dog.

Second, you have 11 outs not 12. Qd gives him the boat.

I just put the hands thru and odds calculator and you're a 41/59 dog on that flop.

Since you don't know what he has, the following match-ups are pertinent:

Against JJ-KK you're 41/59 dog. (It's worse if he has a diamond.)

Against pairs 99 and below not including 2s and 4s you're 50/50

Against AK/AQ/AJ you're 52/48 ahead.

Clear fold.

[Kat]

Dunno if this will format properly but it has some useful numbers:

Outs 1 Card To Come (flop) 1 Card To Come (turn) 2 Cards To Come (flop)
1 2.1% 2.2% 4.3%
2 4.3% 4.3% 8.4%
3 6.4% 6.5% 12.5%
4 (gutshot) 8.5% 8.7% 16.5%
5 10.6% 10.9% 20.4%
6 12.8% 13.0% 24.1%
7 14.9% 15.2% 27.8%
8 (straight) 17.0% 17.4% 31.5%
9 (flush) 19.1% 19.6% 35.0%
10 21.3% 21.7% 38.4%
11 23.4% 23.9% 41.7%
12 25.5% 26.1% 45.0%
13 27.7% 28.3% 48.1%
14 29.8% 30.4% 51.2%
15 (s + f) 31.9% 32.6% 54.1%
16 34.0% 34.8% 57.0%
17 36.2% 37.0% 59.8%
18 38.3% 39.1% 62.4%
19 40.4% 41.3% 65.0%
20 42.6% 43.5% 67.5%
21 44.7% 45.7% 69.9%
22 46.8% 47.8% 72.2%

[Kat]

One final small point. You say running tens gives you 1.5 outs. I assume what you're doing is applying the backdoor draw rule of thumb. That's not applicable here since that estimate assumes a backdoor straight or flush drawing to 8 or 9 outs needing them to hit both streets, but you're drawing to 3 outs on the turn multiplied by 2 outs on the river which is 0.3% or a little more than 1/10th of an out.

[Yoda]

So here's a look at a hand I played this evening. The game is $1 no limit holdem. Over 8000 entered and more then half are already gone. Recently to my current table, plenty of chips vs the blinds and I have most of the table covered. No read on the player and no image for myself.

Table 5 - 100/200 - No Limit Hold'em - 22:05:57 ET - 2010/04/23
Seat 1: sydsdad88 (9,469)
Seat 2: jpq49 (6,760)
Seat 3: Adaon (10,512)
Seat 4: kalin22 (1,550), is sitting out
Seat 5: Deathknell95 (6,650)
Seat 6: mikehawkisitchy (17,078)
Seat 7: DooDooBrwn (3,950)
Seat 8: 1OldRiverDog (10,994), is sitting out
Seat 9: raton_oro (10,410)
kalin22 posts the small blind of 100
Deathknell95 posts the big blind of 200
The button is in seat #3
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to Adaon [Td Ad]
mikehawkisitchy raises to 700
DooDooBrwn folds
1OldRiverDog folds
raton_oro folds
sydsdad88 calls 700
jpq49 folds
Adaon calls 700
kalin22 folds
Deathknell95 calls 500
*** FLOP *** [2h 4d 2d]
Deathknell95 bets 5,950, and is all in
mikehawkisitchy has 15 seconds left to act
mikehawkisitchy has requested TIME
mikehawkisitchy folds
sydsdad88 folds
Adaon ...

So 2 suited over cards to the board, a call represents roughly 60% of your stack. What do you do?


I taked to Gene about this hand. First off...the bet was 3.5x from UTG...I dont like calling with A10 suited preflop even with position here.

After the flop...I think its pretty obvious he has some over pair to the board. Your best hopes are its something like 88 99 and your A and 10 or live with the flush draw...giving you about 15 outs.. Even if this, you still just a little better then 50% to win the hand, but it cost you over half stack to gamble it. I actually put him on a hand like JJ QQ, giving u only the flush draw and ace to win. 12 outs...which is less then 50% for half my stack...not gonna do it..im folding. I like Kats numbers though. Gives you another way to look at it.
Id trust his numbers. Im just to tight to do this hear without some real good reads on player. heck,,even then, Id hate myself for playing it so loosely.

:violin:

[Adaon]

Kat, after running the hand for odds, it is showing it as 40%, albeit I can't see how it gets that answer and I will have to investigate it further, though I do now realize there is a chance for the board to show trips and make him a full house I did not properly consider (I'll further consider the math once I've had some more sleep but I'm really not sure where that 8-9% to win differnce is coming from). You are indeed correct I only have 11 outs once the hand in question is revealed (although it should be considered 13 outs when the question is made, assuming the ten is live 1/3 of the time).

My version of pokerstove has expired so I can't run the range I would expect here, although that only goes so far because it assumes equal distribution (and 88 moving all in on that flop after calling a preflop raise out of position is at least 2-1 more likely then AA doing it). I could write up a spreadsheet but it would be too much trouble, and far too easy to cherry pick hands that I maybe shouldn't to improve my odds. That said, I could see KK-55, and 33 (4s and duces left off because of their unlikelihood with the flop given, but more accurate would be to dived the chance of those 2 hands by 4 and include that) Suited connectors from 76 higher, suited or unsuited broadway, any suited ace, united ace with broadway. The true range of hands that could have been played here preflop is probably even wider.

However, the range that could make the post-flop play is far more narrow and basically excludes all hands that would have me dominated on the flop. (Although I do concede the possibility has to be allowed for that someone would make a drastically bad play with a big hang). What you end up with is all probable hands falling in one category: semi-bluffs. A hand that wants to take down an existing sizable pot without a showdown. I'll gladly take my hand against that range. Though truth be told if his cards had been flipped before i made my decision and I saw QQ, I probably would have folded, where I would call 99-55.

[Kat]

I guess some of it is a matter of philosophy. I don't mind your call in a cash game, for example, but in a tourney when you call and gamble in a spot like this, the chips you lose when you miss are worth far more than the ones you gain when you hit. (Cos chip equity ain't cash equity - ICMs and all that).

I think I know where your math is off. I'm guessing you're not making the correction for duplication. Imagine you have some super-draw (YaY Omaha!) and on the flop half the deck makes your hand. So you're 50% to make your draw on the turn. And if you miss that's one fewer "bad" cards in the deck, so on the river you're a bit more than 50% to make your draw. You can see that just adding the 50% to the 50-something % to get the odds of hitting with two cards to come can't be right. This is a combinatorics duplication issue. Basically you're counting a win twice when your draw cards hit on both the turn AND the river.

So taking this 50% example, you can only count your river outs as "wins" when you've missed on the turn. In other words, if we simplify and call it exactly 50% to hit on the turn and 50% to hit on the river, the correct calculation for the chance of hitting with 2 to come is:

0.5 + 0.5x0.5 = 0.75. (i.e., 75%)

Hope that helps. Using that concept you should be able to reproduce all the %s in the odds chart I posted above.

[Yoda]

Isnt the real question....Do you want to Risk half your stack on a draw at this point in tourney?

[Kat]

Isnt the real question....Do you want to Risk half your stack on a draw at this point in tourney?

It's certainly an important question and the answer IMO depends on the quality of the draw and, far more importantly, the details of the pay-out structure. That's what drives the risk-reward analysis.

But the biggest point to me is still the issue of fold equity being your biggest weapon in tournies. I would have no problem shoving this flop with the AT because you vastly increase the "value" of the hand (and thus the chance of winning) simply by making your opponent fold. Clearly you have no fold equity when you call.

[Yoda]

It's certainly an important question and the answer IMO depends on the quality of the draw and, far more importantly, the details of the pay-out structure. That's what drives the risk-reward analysis.

But the biggest point to me is still the issue of fold equity being your biggest weapon in tournies. I would have no problem shoving this flop with the AT because you vastly increase the "value" of the hand (and thus the chance of winning) simply by making your opponent fold. Clearly you have no fold equity when you call.


Since he had position on this hand, an all in play here is possible if its checked to him. Sure makes it alot more sense to me. I have a hard time with the call. At least at this point in tourney was chip stack

[Adaon]

When deciding how much of my stack I'm willing to risk the way I analyze it is seeing what I'll have left over vs the blinds, and I weight that vs the quality of my draw. If I will have a ton of chips left even if I loose, my calling range is fairly loose. If I will be in decent shape I run a fairly conservative range.

Lets say I have player x covered 10-1 in chips. Blinds are far to small to be worried about. doubling up looks like this 9-2 7-4 3-8. So I could call him all in 3 times and still have him covered. So if I have a draw of more then 9 outs that will win the hand I will most likely call (if I'm sure of the outs).

In this hand, my decision is made on the assumption of 13 outs. 9 for the flush, 3 for the aces, 1 for the 10 (1/3 of the time I think it will be a live out). In addition to that, when I did a quick estimate of my stack if I lost it looked like my M would be over 10. Based on those factors I was willing to call this hand, and probably would do it again in the same situation. He actually HAD a big hand in this case, but I don't believe that would be the hand I would be up against most of the time.

As for the payout, it was approximately 10% of the field, as I recall half the field was gone but we weren't that close to the money yet.

As to risking my stack on a draw, well on 4 out draw no, and a 15 out draw, gladly all day long. :)

[Kat]

Interesting.

I just hate calling I guess. Part of it is that when I play low buy-in tournies I figure I can outplay most of the players, so I'd rather trust my skill than calling AI on a draw and hoping the PGs throw some luck my way.